Back in May, after a trip to Ikea, I wrote,
So, we already know that they have no problem sweeping hundreds of thousands of people out of their homes to make way for a glassy swimming pool, so isn’t it entirely possible that rather than bankrupting themselves and undoing all their Glorious Revolutionising by taking care of a billion elderly, they’ll just let them starve to death? Maybe the trend among American do-gooders in the future will be adopting Chinese grandparents?
The Sunday Telegraph – Prepare for the clash of the generations. By Niall Ferguson (linked to in Saffron Five already)
A few weeks ago I wrote about the environmental damage China is inflicting on itself in the breakneck dash for industrialised wealth. Now let’s consider the demographic side of the story. For, on close inspection, China’s 1.3 billion population may not be as big a source of power as many American and European commentators assume.
According to the UN’s medium variant projection, the population of the world will increase from 6.5 billion to 9.2 billion between now and 2050. But China will account for just 4 per cent of that increase.
The most rapid growth will be elsewhere: in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population will more than double, as well as in the Muslim world (Iran’s population will grow by 44 per cent), India (up 46 per cent), and the United States (up by more than a third). India’s population will overtake that of China some time around 2025.
This is, of course, a consequence of the draconian one-child policy imposed by the Communist regime on China’s population – or, to be precise, on China’s womenfolk, who for a generation have had their fertility policed and restricted in a way that we in the West struggle to imagine.
As well as ceasing to be the world’s most populous country, China will become almost as elderly a society as Europe. Today, fewer than 8 per cent of China’s population are 65 or older. By 2050 that proportion could have risen as high as 24 per cent. The equivalent figure for Europe is 28 per cent; for the UK 24 per cent; and for the US 21 per cent. In sub-Saharan Africa, by contrast, the proportion will rise from 3 per cent to less than 6 per cent. …
China is doomed to age, then, and almost certainly doomed to slow down economically. If ecological catastrophe doesn’t stop the speeding Asian dragon in its tracks, then creeping senility will.
Yeah, cuz so far the Chinese track record indicates that they’re gonna just sit by and let that happen?